Noticias

At this year's Shanghai Auto Show, CATL's innovative frontier battery technology, the condensed matter battery, became a hot topic. But in fact, what is more strategically significant to the industry is CATL's zero-carbon strategy released at the same time.

At the beginning of the new year, Deepseek became the first to become popular for its low cost and high performance . Tencent Cloud, a subsidiary of Tencent, announced on February 2 that the DeepSeek-R1 large model can be deployed to Tencent Cloud HAI (Tencent Cloud High-Performance Application Service) with one click, and developers can access and call it in just 3 minutes.

We also used Deepseek, the "strongest" brain, to summarize the six major trends in the development of national energy storage in 2025. Let's take a look!

The development trend of China's energy storage industry in 2025 will show a trend of accelerated upgrading in multiple dimensions, covering technology iteration, policy support, application scenario expansion and business model innovation. The following is a detailed analysis of key trends:

01Diversification of technology routes and accelerated iteration

Technology stratification under the dominance of lithium batteries

Lithium-ion batteries will still dominate (expected to account for more than 70%), but the technology routes are differentiated:

In the field of power batteries : high-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate are developing in parallel, and the mass-produced energy density of CATL Kirin Battery (CTC technology) has exceeded 300Wh/kg.

Special batteries for energy storage : 314/500+Ah large-capacity batteries have become the industry standard.

Sodium-ion batteries have achieved GW-level mass production, with costs 30% lower than lithium batteries. Their penetration rate in base station energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles may reach 15%.

��Breakthrough in long-term energy storage technology

The installed capacity of all-vanadium liquid flow battery energy storage continues to grow.

Compressed air energy storage is moving towards the 300MW level, and the system efficiency has increased to more than 65%.

The first 100-megawatt project for gravity energy storage (such as the Energy Vault concrete tower solution) was completed.

02Improvement of policy system and innovation of market mechanism

Mandatory storage policy upgrade

The new energy storage ratio has been upgraded from "10%×2h" to differentiated requirements for different regions:

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Three North regions: 15%-20%×4h (supporting Shagohuang base)

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Central and eastern regions: 10%-15%×2h

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The equivalent utilization hours of storage capacity are included in the assessment indicators. (≥600 hours/year)

�� Deepening of power market reform

The spot market has been fully opened, and the peak-to-valley price spread has widened to more than 4:1.

With the implementation of the capacity electricity price mechanism, energy storage power stations can obtain a fixed income of 50-100 yuan/kW·year.

The compensation standard for frequency regulation ancillary services has been raised to 12-15 yuan/MW per time .

03In-depth expansion of application scenarios

Construction of new power system

The proportion of grid-forming energy storage technology has increased to 30%, solving the inertia support problem of high-proportion new energy access.

The number of thermal power + energy storage joint frequency regulation projects has increased, and the response time has been shortened to less than 50ms.

Breakthrough in user-side business model

The penetration rate of integrated photovoltaic, storage and charging projects in industrial parks exceeds 40%, and cross-park electricity trading is achieved through VPP aggregation.

The penetration rate of household energy storage has exceeded 8%, and provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have emerged with "photovoltaic + energy storage + smart home" whole-house energy solutions.

04Reconstruction of industrial ecology

Cross-border integration is accelerating

Car companies enter the market: BYD launches the "blade battery + energy storage system" overall solution, and NIO establishes a V2G urban energy storage network.

ICT enterprise empowerment: Huawei launches an AI-enabled energy storage intelligent operation and maintenance platform with a prediction accuracy of 95%.

Upgrade of overseas strategy

Energy storage system exports are expected to exceed 100GWh in 2025, with key markets:

United States: Driven by the IRA policy, Chinese companies circumvent trade barriers through production capacity in Thailand/Mexico.

Europe: The localization rate requirement for household storage products is increased to 60%, and CATL's German factory goes into production.

Middle East: The scale of a single order for energy storage projects exceeds 15GWh.

05The economic turning point has arrived

Life cycle electricity cost

Lithium battery energy storage: 0.25-0.35 yuan/kWh (down 40% from 2022)

Liquid flow battery: 0.30-0.50 yuan/kWh

The IRR of industrial and commercial energy storage has increased to 12%-15%, and the investment payback period has been shortened to 5-7 years.

Innovation of carbon financial instruments

The pilot program for energy storage carbon credit trading has been launched, and 1MWh of energy storage discharge can be converted into 0.5 tons of CO₂ emission reduction equivalent.

The issuance scale of green ABS exceeds 50 billion yuan, and the underlying assets cover shared energy storage income rights.

06Challenges and Responses

 Supply Chain Security

The self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources increased to 60% (extracting lithium from mica in Jiangxi and expanding production of salt lakes in Tibet)

The sodium battery industry chain has completed a closed loop, and the cost of positive electrode materials has dropped to 30,000 yuan/ton.

Safety standard upgrade

The third-level fire protection standard for energy storage systems is enforced, and the advance warning time for thermal runaway is increased to 30 minutes.

In 2025, the energy storage industry will enter a new stage of "high-quality scale". The triple resonance of technology, policy and market will promote the industry's thorough transformation from "policy-driven" to "market-driven". Investors are advised to focus on long-term energy storage technology, power market trading software, overseas localized capacity layout and other sub-tracks, while being alert to the risks of structural overcapacity and international trade frictions.